1. The two biggest issues powering Donald Trump’s electoral power in the 2024 elections were the economy and immigration.
Real wages for Americans are lower today than when Joe Biden was sworn in as President in January 2021 because post-pandemic inflation was too high for too long, so even though inflation was eventually contained without triggering a recession, the feeling that groceries, gas, and rent were cheaper under President Trump has a factual, statistical basis, unfortunately.
On immigration and border security, the Biden administration not only undid Trump’s horrendous family separation policy but used executive orders to incentivize border-crossers to apply for asylum. The end result was a wholly unnecessary crisis of massive proportions as millions of desperate people looking for a better life in the U.S. decided to cross the U.S.-Mexico border and file asylum claims regardless of whether they were being persecuted at home or not. The judicial system was quickly overwhelmed and many of these claims will take up to a decade to adjudicate; the average wait time for the first hearing is often years after the application is first filed and in the meantime applicants get to reside in the U.S. while they wait.
2. The normalization of Trump
Trump has been at the forefront of American political life and debate nearly every day since he cruised down the Trump Tower escalator on June 16, 2015. He won — and lost — the presidency and has now won it again without igniting a World War 3 or destroying American democracy as many of his detractors predicted or feared. Americans have largely gotten used to Trump and his antics and this popular acclimation robbed the charges that he is a fascist who loves Hitler of their sting — that view of Trump only resonates with about one-third of the electorate.
3. Harris was a weak candidate who failed to make the case for her presidency.
Kamala Harris started with historically low approval ratings as vice president after running a presidential primary campaign in 2020 that went nowhere fast because she couldn’t decide whether she was a progressive or a liberal and did a poor job managing her campaign which was torn asunder by family and staff conflicts. She was abruptly inserted into the top of the Democratic Party’s presidential ticket almost at the last minute after Biden spectacularly bombed the first presidential debate with Trump where he could barely speak coherently let alone make cogent arguments about policy.
In the roughly four-month campaign that followed, Harris was never able to answer basic questions like how a Harris administration would be different than a Biden administration despite repeatedly claiming that she would not simply be second term for Biden. She tended to avoid talking about policy specifics in media appearances and instead issued vague platitudes, making her oddly similar to Trump and which served to undermine any sort of ‘populist fighter’ framing meant to appeal to working-class and low-income voters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEl_ReCOIbw
Sadly Harris’ loss didn’t just guarantee Trump four more years as president but her dreadful candidacy dragged down a significant number of Democrats downballot with her in defeat, particularly Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio who was closely aligned ideologically with Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
The Democratic Party can recover and win again in 2028 only by acknowledging both the objective and subjective factors outlined above with fearless, clear-eyed honesty.
